Technical Analysis

Technical analysts use stock charts instead of fundamental analysis to select stocks. A technician will look at a stocks chart (which at a minimum has price and trading volume) to determine when to buy, hold or sell the stock. Technical analysis offers an unbiased insight into how institutional investors (mutual funds, banks, pension plans, and hedge funds) view the company from the time it first started trading publicly up until the present moment. If a stock has been trending up for several years, then there is a good chance that the company’s earnings have been growing fairly consistently, which has caused the stock to move up. The opposite might be true if a stock has declined in price for several years. If there is wild speculation taking place, you will see many stocks form what is called a parabolic curve, where it eventually moves straight up in price before burning out. For examples, look at many of the past high flying technology or homebuilding stocks.

Many stocks will begin to decline several months before any bad news comes out. This was evidenced by the declines seen in financial stocks in 1990, Asian and emerging market stocks in 1997, energy stocks in 1998, high tech companies in 2000, homebuilders in 2006, mortgage and financial companies in 2007. Technical analysis can also spot those stocks or sectors that are new leaders when a bear market has ended and a new bull market is underway.

Technical Indicators
VolumeInternalsTime-frames

Trading volume is the total amount of trading activity in a particular market or stock for the trading day. It is the total number of shares that trade hands for that day. Volume can give insight into whether or not there is demand for a stock or not, as well as if institutions are in a rush to exit or if they are quietly taking profits or accumulating shares of stock.

Bullish trading action: When a stock moves higher on increasing trading volume, it is considered good because it indicates an increasing demand for shares.

When a stock or market has run up in price on heavy trading volume, and then the price moves back down on lighter trading volume, it indicates that investors are not eager to sell their shares.

If a stock closes in the higher end of its weekly trading range over a period of weeks on months on a consistant basis, it means there is a high liklihood that the stock is being accumulated by institutional investors.

Bearish trading action: When a stock moves lower on increasing trading volume, it is considered bearish because it means institutional investors are in a hurry to sell their shares.

When a stock or the market has fallen on heavy trading volume, and then moves higher on lighter or less trading volume, it is bearish because there is not as much demand for those shares as they move higher.

If a stock continues to close in the low end of its weekly price range over a period of weeks or months, it indicates that there is not as much demand for the stock and that it could be prone to selloff.

Trading volume is very helpful to use on longer term charts (weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly). It can give a better overall picture of whether or not institutions are accumulating shares or selling them.