Recent entries (other topics to the right)
Sep 2

Written by: Arthur Daret
9/2/2008 1:05 PM

The United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) which is an ETF that tracks the price of oil is experiencing a pretty steep decline. There are also multiple reversal weeks (this is a 3 year chart) recently. You'll notice that the two most recent months in black both closed near the low end of their trading ranges. At this stage, a sharp rebound might be hard to hold because V shaped recoveries don't fare as well as recoveries coming off of a base that has had time to consolidate. If the trend continues, the next support will be at $80.00 and then $70.00, where it traded from October 2006 until July 2006.

Commodities have also fallen. There was a double-top put in. The first in late April of 2007, then again in March 2008. Both times the PowerShares commodity ETF hit $28.00 but was unable to move higher.

Gold is also falling. You can also see the lower highes this year and the heavy trading volume when gold fell (in red). As inflation concerns ease, and the dollar strengthens, this could fall some more.

Silver looks terrible. In July alone it has declined substantially.

As money comes out of these areas, it will have to go somewhere and stocks could see some additional accumulation as money rotates out of these areas.

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