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Dec 30

Written by: Arthur Daret
12/30/2008 4:18 PM

Investors are buying more call options as opposed to put options which puts a bit of a damper on the shorter term prospects for the market right now. Odd lot short sales (lots of less than 100 shares) are declining, Rydex leveraged fund flows into bullish funds is increasing, and the liquidity premium is declining (investors are more willing to buy individual securities vs. ETF's or mutual funds).

What's bullish for the market however are newsletter surveys from the AAII and Investors Intelligence. Investors are also not willing to speculate in riskier stocks either. It takes longer for newsletters to turn bearish and they have been pessimistic for months-and-months.

In addition, risk aversion is everywhere. I'm hearing commercials where the announcer says that the smart money now is buying CD's and other 'safe' instruments. Brokerages and banks are laying off thousands of employees (which happens near market bottoms), and the market is absorbing negative news much better than it was earlier in the year which could mean that bad news has for the most part been priced into equities.

Arthur Daret

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